Hurricane Milton a powerful category 4 hurricane
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Milton and his Bargain
Currently, Hurricane Milton has a maximum sustained wind of 140-150 mph and is in the Category 4 region on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind ScaleBefore making landfall, the storm is likely to reach Category 5 strength in the Gulf of Mexico, but then quickly lose some power. But even as a Category 3 storm at landfall, the ability to cause damage is substantial.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #14 As of Thursday morning, the storm is about 700 miles ESE of Cancun and has begun a “wobble”–a minor but crucial change in the path of the storm that can make or break where landfall occurs. A wobble north or south is the difference between catastrophic impacts and more tolerable conditions for Tampa. Experts are processing up-to-the-minute tracking data, cautioning that predictions so close to landfall were subject to error.
Storm Surge: Tampa’s Biggest Threat
Whether a hurricane makes landfall at a Category 3 or 5 likely will depend on if the storm is able to bombard bicoastal South Florida with bathwater-warm waters and trigger major convection over the eye (and not subject to wind shear). The Tampa Bay area, meanwhile, should remain focused on the storm surge threat from Hurricane Milton. If that’s what happens, the storm will send massive amounts of water — estimated at 6 feet in some parts — into Tampa Bay. In a worst case scenario the NHC are forecasting 8-12 feet of storm surge.
This magnitude of storm surge would result in catastrophic flooding for a large number of low-lying areas, especially those that are found the near coast. A great deal of homes, roads, and businesses must be covered on account if the waterfronts of Tampa Bay. Mandatory evacuations are already partly in place in the areas most at-risk to flooding.
Hurricane Warnings and Timegaps
Several regions in Florida and also Mexico have been put under hurricane warnings and watches, in accordance with the updated.
HURRICANE WARNING AREAS:
Celestun > Rio Lagartos, Mexico
Hurricane Watch Issued For
From Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche (Mexico)
South of Celestun (Mexico, to north of Campeche=temp)
Chokoloskee eastward to Suwanee River and Key West north through Tampa Bay
Dry Tortugas
Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Watch is also in effect from Flamingo northward to the mouth of Forty Mile Bend on the Florida Gulf coast, from the Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island and including Tampa Bay. Life-threatening inundation, which is the rising of water over land, is expected. Residents should prepare for very rapid rises in water on a day like this.
Tropical Storm Warnings in effect for part of Mexico.
Evacuation Orders and Preparations
The governor of Florida declared a state of emergency for some counties, including those that line the Gulf Coast. Areas that are prone to flooding in Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Clearwater have been placed under voluntary evacuations. These zones are projected to experience the most surge as the storm comes closest to making landfall.
Residents are asked to —
Heed evacuation orders.
Gather supplies, including water, batteries and non-perishable food
Board up windows and brace doors in secure homes.
Stay out of high flood areas and other low-lying zones
The Role of Meteorologists in Crisis
WFLA meteorologists have been doing a wonderful job keeping Tampa Bay residents in the loop. They follow the strength, course and pace of the storm using refined meteorological models together with real-time satellite images. Local officials rely on that information to make life-and-death decisions, from declaring evacuations to closing schools and businesses.
In the world of hurricane forecasting, one of the most puzzling features to predict is the storm wobble. Even small displacements in the eye of a hurricane can result in hugely different areas of impact. Citizens of Tampa Bay are warned to pay attention to the storm’s path continuously updated on Wobble Tracker. A wobble of just 20 miles can shift the heaviest impacts from one city to another.
How to Stay Safe
If you live in the Tampa Bay area, this is your last-minute check-list. The following guidelines are necessary to keep you safe,
If Told to Leave, Get Out Now; Traffic can get clogged fast, and emergency services may be few and far between.
Prepare for Power Outages Charge your phones, put batteries together and FLASH LIGHTS FOREMOST. The power might not come on for days after the storm hits.
Prepare Your Supplies: The storm could mean supply chain disruptions for days. Among the things that you HAVE to have are water, non-perishable foods, medications and a 1st aid kit.
Keep Important Papers Dry: Place ID, insurance documents and other key papers in waterproof bags.
Long-Term Impact
The details of exactly where and when Milton will make landfall and the strength at which it will do so remain uncertain, but one thing is certain: The Tampa Bay area can not afford to be caught unprepared for the storm. They have not only forced evacuations of thousands ahead of damaging winds and flooding but are also expected to mean long-term disruptions in the weeks after, for which some states look ill-prepared. Roads can be blocked, and utility services can last 3 days. It could take a long time for floodwaters to recede, particularly as the storm churns onshore or if rainbands continue to drench areas after landfall.
The storm is a reminder of the potential threat to Florida with its entire coastline fronting on the Gulf Coast. Meteorologists stress that the best way for people to protect themselves is to remain aware and informed. Now every little thing that you do whether that would be evacuating early, securing your home or hoarding supplies to last you until it its safe to go outside can make a difference when the storm hits.
Keep up with the latest updates here, and to keep tabs on Hurricane Milton follow their live Wobble Tracker.